Maybe, Just Maybe

First, let me state where I stand on everything related to COVID.  I think far too often folks love to shout their opinions without the proper context of what's driving their views.  Why is this important?  Personally I have a hard time accepting someone's views to continue the lockdown if they are gainfully employed with the new luxury of working from home full time.  Conversely, I have a harder time accepting someone's views to open up if the basis of their argument is solely to return to a normal life.  Life as we know it will not be "normal" again for a very long time.  We all just need to accept that as a fact at this point.  So back to where I stand.

• I agreed with the lockdown initially, especially given the lack of preparedness, data, and information we had at the time.
• I disagree strongly with the notion we must remain on some form of lockdown until there's a vaccine or successful treatment.
• I disagree strongly with the notion we must continue to lockdown almost entirely due to protecting the at-risk and elderly.  This does not mean I want them to die.  What it means is they should quarantine, and so should anyone who wants to see them, while the rest of us get back to rebuilding.  We don't quarantine the healthy...we quarantine the sick.
• I am not financially impacted by the lockdown in any way.  
• I think masks are stupid and ineffective, but if that's what it takes to start re-opening, then I'll play along with the game. 
• I believe this is not just another flu and that it's highly contagious.  I also believe the risk of death to the vast majority of the country is incredibly low. So when I say we should re-open, it's not that I think I won't get COVID, but rather I'm strongly confident it will be nothing worse than a terrible two week ordeal.  
• And finally, short of a vaccine,  I believe ultimately the number of deaths and cases was always going to be the same regardless of our measures.  The difference would be how long it took for the virus to run its course.

But this isn't a post specifically about the virus.  This is a post for why maybe it's not all bad we've gone through this the past two months.   This experiment, the likes of which we've never seen before, has served to expose a great deal about who we are, what we care about, what we've taken for granted, and what an extreme version of government control means to our lives.  

Let's be real about who we are.  We are not all in this together.  We are not a nation that comes together when there's an emergency.  We are not a nation that ultimately puts others before ourselves.  Certainly pockets of the nation and like-minded people are acting this way, but as a nation we are more divided than ever.  And those never-ending commercials where giant corporations are telling you how much they care and want to support you and your community?  Well they still just want your money.  That's it.  We've hoarded toilet paper and other grocery items.  We have a raging social media battle on how to deal with the virus where vitriol is spewed on a daily basis between family and friends.  We have some saying, "who cares, let em die", while others are saying "who cares about 36 million people now unemployed".  We don't really care about the people outside our circles and now at least we know it.  We know that if there's a true national emergency you won't be able to count on your fellow man to just take what they need and leave the rest for others.  You won't be able to rest assured our government will come together as one to do what's best for the nation.  And sadly, you likely won't be able to rely on the empathy and support of those on the other side of the debate from you...the idea of winning the debate is far too important for us to take a second to care for those we fight against. So now we know who we are and we can all stop pretending we are something different.  Or maybe, just maybe, we can all use this as a time of self-reflection to see who we are and start to change.  Trade anger for empathy.  Trade selfishness for selflessness.  Trade singularity for unity.  It's never too late.  

But it's not all bad news.  I think and hope many of us have a much greater appreciation for what we care about and what we've taken for granted for so long.  Yesterday I noticed the local Starbucks had re-opened.  Yes, there's loads of restrictions, but damnit it's open!!  It filled me with momentary joy and made me realize how spoiled we are in America.  There's coffee all over the place and for the past two months I've been annoyed the one I like isn't conveniently close to me?  Or how about our stores?  That slight pang of anxiety when you walk in and whether your favorite item is in stock.  Then the wave of relief and even excitement when it's on the shelf.  We've grown accustomed to never having to be without a single thing we desire.  And now that a tiny fraction of what we want is a little hard to get, we are outraged?  Millions of people around the world don't know where their next meal will come from and our biggest worry is whether we have to get canned tuna in vegetable oil instead of canned tuna in water.  We are spoiled and have been for decades.  Maybe, just maybe, we will have a little more appreciation for all we have instead of the little we are doing without.  My wife did a mission trip to Haiti where she met a local pastor.  When talking about being poor he said something to the effect of, "Poor?  Your poor have shoes."  We live in an amazing bubble of alternative reality called America, and while not perfect, it's so vastly better than what so many other people have to experience on a daily basis.  You are free to argue with your neighbor and government without being thrown in jail or killed.  You aren't waiting in line for the last loaf of bread, which will be your only meal for the day.  And virtually all the time we don't even need to leave the couch to buy the next thing we desire and have it show up on our doorstop, with Amazon Prime free shipping, two days later.  Yet, we feel the right to complain because we've been marginally inconvenienced for two months when other countries have been in civil wars for decades?  I'm not asking for people to stop pressing for a return to normalcy, but maybe we should check our outrage at the door for a bit.

And lastly, I think we've all seen a healthy dose of what over-reaching government control can bring.  Regardless of your political affiliation, you should be alarmed at how easily and swiftly federal and local governments were allowed to control how you live.  You should be alarmed at the unilateral power Governors have seized for such an extended period of time.  You should be scared about how easy it was to turn one of the best economies in history to rubble in a matter of a week.  You should have second thoughts about nationalized medicine when we can't even agree on how to handle one virus.  For the past two months our lives and livelihood have been at the mercy of our elected officials and the effects have been profound and drastic.  I simply don't understand why people continue to vote for officials who tell you how to live, how to think, and care more about the few than the many.  I don't know why people continue to put into office the candidates who are running their regions into the ground.  But maybe now those elected officials have also been exposed for who they are.  Maybe, just maybe, those who are still waiting for a stimulus check in California will be outraged by Nancy Pelosi's desire to protect marijuana over their jobs.  Yes, that's right, did you know in the Democrat's latest proposed stimulus bill the word cannabis is mentioned 68 times which was more than the words job and jobs combined?  I can only hope people treat their right to vote and their voting choices far more seriously going forward than they've done in the past.  

You see, the freedom and choice we've taken for granted for so long has never been free.  We are an entitled and spoiled society that has long forgotten the sacrifices of those who came before us.  We need to be kinder to each other, regardless of whether we agree or disagree with each other's views.  We need to be more thankful for what we have instead of focusing on the little which we lack.  We need to be more serious about our privilege to vote and elect those who allow us to live freely instead of telling us how to live.  And we need to understand that change starts with ourselves and not with our neighbors.  If you want a different and better world, it starts with you.  Do you make the lives around you better or worse with your actions?  In this time of crisis are you throwing gas or water on the fear, anger, and anxiety flames?  There's been a raging virus of antipathy and discord in our country for many years.  It's highly contagious and has been slowly killing the fabric of our nation, our mental well-being, and our relationships with others.  Are you part of the virus or part of the cure?

God Bless America and God Bless You All.

Blind Trust

Like many people around the world, I struggle daily with the new reality facing us due to COVID-19.  It's not hard to find arguments for and against the measures being taken to curb the virus and the vitriol is increasing daily on the battle lines.  While this post is not primarily about advocating for a side in that argument, I will take a few minutes to state very clearly my position.  I was 100% in favor of the initial lockdown measures, almost entirely due to the absence of data and too many critical unknowns.  I continued to be for the lockdown after preliminary data became available even though my natural desire was for the disease to just run it's course.  Too many people were dying and the epicenter was so close to where I live, making it all very real.  I turned against the lockdowns a couple of weeks ago when a few things became clear to me.  First, I am in very low risk and so is my family.  In saying this, I understand someone in a different circumstance would likely have the complete opposite view and I respect that.  Second, as the contagion rate increases with every new study, that also means the death rate is dropping.  By one measure the true mortality rate of COVID-19 is .5%.  Third, there is a way to keep the most at-risk out of harm's way while letting the vast majority of society go about their new normal.  This notion that we must all be locked away, now that we understand the facts of the virus, seems arbitrarily severe.  And finally, the consequences of the solution are beginning of showing signs to be just as detrimental (and possibly more) than the virus itself.

But this post isn't about my opinion, although I'm guessing any response to this post will be solely about that.  This post is about why suddenly as a society we decided to blindly trust the severity of this virus when our entire history is riddled with examples of ignoring critical health warnings.  What has changed in the way we think, the risks we are willing to take, and our responsibility for others?  Let's walk through two counter-examples.

Smoking has long been part of our society despite longstanding and clear negative health impacts to both ourselves and those around us.  As early as 1929, German Scientist Fritz Lickint discovered a link between smoking and lung cancer.  And yet people continued to smoke.  By 1964 the US Surgeon General issued a definitive report linking cigarettes with lung cancer.  And yet we continued to smoke.  In 1986 the US Surgeon General concluded second hand smoke was harmful and potentially deadly.  And while Cigarettes were on the decline, we continued to smoke and did so in public.  While smoking in public has gotten more and more restrictive, smoking cigarettes is still common with roughly 14% of the US population declared as regular smokers.  To make matters worse, as the rate of smokers continually decreased from the mid-1960's, we introduced Vaping in roughly 2005.  Today an estimated 9 million citizens say they are regular vapers.  Even worse, our youth are using e-Cigarettes at alarming numbers.  In one survey 26% of high school juniors said they vaped in the past 30 days and 11% of 8th graders had as well.  Over the past 2 years we've begun to see Vapers develop chronic and deadly lung issues as a result of their e-cigarette use. And yet people continue to Vape.  Years of evidence on the link between Cigarettes and lung disease.  Years of evidence linking second hand smoke and lung disease.  Years of evidence linking e-cigarettes and lung disease.  And yet we continue to smoke/vape, it continues to be legal, and you can still do it in public.  So why is this version of an activity which impacts our lungs, causing sickness and death, ignored by so many of those same people who blindly believe in the risks of COVID-19?



Unprotected sex, outside of marriage, is a common practice in our society.  And while I couldn't easily find when health risks became clear, I think it's safe to say we've known for at least the past 100 years.  In a 2017 survey, 46% of High School Seniors who'd had sex in the past month did so without protection.  It's estimated that as high as 65% of those having sex, do so regularly without using a condom.  Yet we know unprotected sex leads to sexually transmitted disease, some of which cause lifelong health issues and death.  According to WHO, unprotected sex ranks second amongst the top ten risk factors to health in terms of the burden of disease they cause.  The most extreme example is AIDS, where tens of millions of people have died from the disease since the 1980's.  WHO also estimates that 350 million people annually contract some form of treatable sexually transmitted disease.  A 2016 survey showed unprotected sex as the fastest growing health risk for teens.  And while I don't care to entertain a debate on abortion, unprotected sex results in an estimated 600,000+ abortions per year (deaths of unborn humans).  So with all of this clear and abundant data on the health risks and associated deaths, why are so many people still having unprotected sex?  In fact right now, during lockdown, I'm guessing many unmarried couples are regularly having unprotected sex since buying condoms would require them to leave their house and risk the COVID virus.  Think about that, some of our youth are more willing to engage in an activity that has high risk to their health than one that would translate to a lower risk to their health.

Back to my original question.  What is it about COVID that's created this level of fear and paranoia, when other and more severe health risks are dismissed daily as commonplace?  Why are so many in our society willing to blindly trust health officials, with far less scientific data, about COVID?  Why is our government willing to go to this level of extreme to contain this disease when they gladly accept the tax revenue associated with cigarettes which causes the same type of lung disease?  Time will tell if this is just a short-term, knee-jerk reaction or whether we're now entering a permanent new norm.  But if this many in our society are this concerned about public and personal health risks, maybe we should pay a little more attention (and get a lot more strict) about some of the health risks we choose to ignore and profit off every day.

Once Upon a Time, A COVID-19 Movie Edition

Once upon a time Baby and Johnny met while Baby's family was vacationing in the Catskills.  Entitled Baby learns to dance from bad boy Johnny, despite objections from Baby's overbearing father.  The end of summer party arrives, Baby is put in a corner, Johnny gallantly rescues her, they land the big dance move, and Dirty Dancing was born.

Today, the Houseman of Representatives family escapes DC from the Coronavirus and travels to the Catskills.  The Kellerman resort, purchased by Donald Trump during the 2008 financial crisis, has been renamed Mir A Lago Catskills.  The resort is open, but following strict social distancing guidelines following an outbreak of COVID, mostly amongst the aging guests.  Baby, played by AOC, is petulant as ever waiting out her summer before she can join the Peace Corps.  Baby tries to convert the entertainment staff to Democratic Socialism and tells them they should demand a living wage.  While talking to the entertainment staff, Baby meets Johnny Castle, played by the entire mainstream media.  Johnny quickly becomes infatuated with AOC and convinces her to go to her father, played by Dr. Anthony Fauci, for testing kits and ventilators for the now sick staff.  As the lockdown continues, employees and guests are at odds on whether to proceed with the end of season party.  Baby's father is adamant that she stay locked away and miss the party, therefore forfeiting her chance to use it as a stage to tell the employees they should not go back to work when the pandemic is over.  At the movie's climax, Johnny races to Baby's cabin, pounds on the door, tells her Father "Nobody Puts Baby on Lockdown", whisks her away to the party where they pass a $23.00 minimum wage, the employees declare "They've had the time of their lives", and they all live happily ever after.  Except they don't because Mir A Lago can't afford to pay $23/hour and replaces most of their staff with self-service automation.

Once upon a time Phil Connors travels with producer Rita Hanson and Cameraman Larry to Punxsutawney PA for the annual Groundhog Day celebrations.  Phil wakes up to Sonny and Cher every morning, lives the same day over and over, tries to seduce Rita and fails, steals Punxsutawney Phil, has a death wish, becomes a good man, gets Rita to fall in love with him, finally wakes up on a new day, and the cult classic movie Groundhog Day was born.

Today, the CNN news crew decides to broadcast Groundhog Day even after concerns grow regarding the COVID virus and the need to social distance.  Phil Connors, played by Chris Cuomo, is unable to make the trip as he battles COVID and instead does his weather broadcast remotely while in quarantine. Rita, played by Ellen DeGeneres' talk show staff, is furloughed by CNN and replaced with a less expensive non-union producer.  Buster, played by NJ Governor Phil Murphy, decides at the last minute to cancel the festival even though Punxsutawney has virtually no confirmed cases of COVID in the town.  Buster imposes a strict lockdown, closes all parks, requires mandatory face masks when in stores, and implements a fine for those not following the new mandates.  With this new lockdown, Phil begins to live the same day over and over again until it drives him crazy.  Meanwhile, residents of Punxsutawney have grown restless and decide to hold a "Re-Open Punxsutawney Rally" in the center of town.  Punxsutawney Phil attends, sees his shadow, predicts 6 more weeks of lockdown, and is fined for congregating in public.  Ned Ryerson, played by Damon Johns, is arrested for price gouging N95 masks, hand sanitizer, and toiler paper.  The Tip Top Cafe, played by every small business in America, runs out of money, has to let go of Doris the Waitress (played by 27 million American workers), files for stimulus money under the CARES act, is not awarded any money as it goes to Harvard and Shake Shack instead, files again after round 2 of the stimulus package, receives a small forgivable loan, barely holds on thanks to a take out only service and partnership with Grubhub, and they all live happily ever after.  Except they don't because the health and economic hardships created by the lockdown last far longer than the virus itself and Punxsutawney was never the same town again.

Once upon a time Nick Young and Rachel Chu meet in NYC and fall in love.  They travel to Singapore for Nick's best friend's wedding, Rachel discovers Nick is loaded, is treated poorly by Nick's mother and the wedding's bridesmaids, decides her love for Nick isn't worth it and abrubptly leaves, Nick races to the airport before Rachel boards her flight to propose, and the movie Crazy Rich Asians was born.

Today, Nick is "The Bachelor" and meets Rachel, 1 of 25 women vying for Nick's love.  After several rose ceremonies, 1:1, and group dates, Nick is down to the final 4.  Nick decides to take Rachel to his best friend's wedding for their hometown visit even though COVID-19 is beginning to ravage Asia.  After all, Singapore is considered safe given their extensive testing, tracking, and social distancing measures.  While in Singapore, Rachel discovers Nick is actually a toilet paper magnate.  Nick's mother, played by Nancy Pelosi, immediately suspects Rachel of only being interested in him because her family is down to their last few rolls.  Nick's mother is widely criticized after appearing on the Late Show in front of an entire room of toilet paper, while advocating for Rachel's dismissal from the show.  Rachel meets the Bridesmaids, played by The Squad, who try and shame her for the carbon emissions she put out flying to Singapore and a tweet from 2006 (when she was 10) which they believe clearly shows she's a xenophobe.  Rachel can't take anymore, decides to leave Singapore before the travel ban takes effect, is met at the airport by Nick who promises to give up his toilet paper fortune and asks for her hand in marriage, accepts his proposal, returns to NYC and everyone lives happily ever after.  Except they don't because a second wave of COVID sweeps Singapore and Nick's mother dies. Rachel and Nick return to NYC, bringing the virus with them, and infect patient 0 in the US.  For the next several months in the US thousands are infected and die, society is on lockdown, the economy is destroyed, millions of workers are out of jobs, and the movie title is changed to Crazy Sick Asians.