The Turd Mentality?

If you aren't familiar with the term Herd Mentality, it refers to how individuals can be influenced by their peers to adopt certain behaviors on a largely emotional, rather than rational, basis (Wikipedia).  It's also known as mob, pack, and gang mentality.  An historical example of the herd mentality was the "Tulip Mania" of the Dutch Golden Age where a single tulip bulb would sell for as much as 10x the average craftsman's salary.  Shortly after being introduced, tulips became a luxury item when a normal flower was nothing more than a commodity.  Within a few years bulb prices continued to rise to the point the Dutch actually created a Futures Market for bulbs in 1636.  And then the tulip bulb market completely collapsed in February of 1637, likely and ironically, due to the outbreak of the bubonic plague. 



Today's current mania is centered around paper products, specifically, toilet paper.  The onset of the CV-19 lockdown, and subsequent advice from the CDC to stock up on household items, has as created a run on toilet paper never before seen in our lifetime.  Most of us know it's irrational, yet we all are now part of the herd, feeling lucky when we score a role of toilet paper we'd hesitate to use in a gas station bathroom.  Yes, thanks to CV-19, we now have the Turd Mentality.

Quick side note:  It's fascinating to think about what creates the herd mentality.  Think about a line forming to board an airplane.  It's not the first person who gets in the line which creates the herd mentality.  In fact, if you are like me, you silently mock the weary business traveler, alone standing in line 30 minutes before boarding.  The herd mentality is actually created by the second person.  At that point, you start to assess whether you are going to miss out on something if you don't join the line.  What happens if a few more people get in line?  Will I have overhead space for my carry on?  By the time your quick assessment is done, travelers with faster mental computation have already joined and now the line is several deep.  At that point, you see the herd mentality take effect and the line goes from 1 to 2 to 10 to everyone.  And then sadly the late arrivers show up, shaking their heads, dismayed by the fact they are at the end of the line and sure to miss out.  

I believe the Turd Mentality originated through a combination of normal disaster preparedness, extreme fear of the virus, ambiguity of what a lockdown would mean, and what countless end of times movies/books/shows have shown us all.  I will spend a few minutes breaking down each of these components.

Disaster Preparedness: When the announcement of imminent lockdowns was made, many people's shopping habits were very similar to how they would normally stock up in preparation for a natural disaster, like a hurricane.  In those times, you need to get certain supplies which you may not normally need (like water).  In fact, if you watched any news reports at the start of the lockdown, bottled water was also initially being hoarded.  So why did water not end up in a shortage when TP did?  People quickly realized this was not a normal natural disaster where they'd be out of their home or electricity would be knocked out, therefore water was always going to be in abundance.  They simply needed to just turn on their faucets.  Meanwhile, more and more news reports began to broadcast the herd (and in this case some real turds) beginning to get shopping carts full of toilet paper.  And we all begin to ask the question...what happens if I run out of toilet paper?  We'll call this the metaphorical "first person in line". 

Fear of the Virus: Meanwhile, fear of the virus continues to grow and some portion of our society is starting to get afraid to leave their house.  We've started to shut down the economy.  People are working from home.  The initial wave of non-essential stores are closing.  So the fearful gather up the courage to make one more trip before they hunker down...they go to the store to stock up on supplies.  And when they go to the store, they are armed with the mental images of the TP hoarding and the new information of TP shelves which are showing just the beginnings of becoming bare.  So they gobble up all they can.  We now have the second "person" in the metaphorical TP line.  The herd is getting ready to pounce.

Lockdown Ambiguity: Very few of us have ever been under mandatory lockdown and therefore we didn't know what to expect.  Would we be able to leave our house for essentials or would that be forbidden?  Would all stores eventually close or would some remain open?  Our internal threat computers are missing data to make the proper decisions so we look for any available data to guide our paths.  And what data is readily available?  Loads and loads of people buying toilet paper.  They must know something I don't, so TP must be something I need.  But this can't really be true.  I'll just go to the store, and while selection may be low, I'll get my TP without any problem.  Yet amazingly, when we hit the stores, there's none left.  But we are smart, we know of other places, and luckily we find a couple packs via online, or drug stores, or the smaller markets.  But our stories are told to friends & family and posted on social media.  The panic is in full force.  Now the metaphorical TP line is 10 deep.


The way I felt after finally finding TP at the store

End of Times Entertainment: Now even the most calm are in some form of a panic on whether they will ever find TP.  Every doomsday show/movie/book we've ever watched tells us certain items, once a commodity, now are being traded like currency.  In fact, some restaurants in Italy were taking TP as payment for food at one point.  Entertainment told us medicine, booze, weapons, and cigarettes would be the most important but TP isn't sexy...of course entertainment would leave that out.  The irrational part of our brains, now with tons of idle time, is going into overdrive about the impending TP crisis.  Amazon has to have some...awesome, found it...shoot expected delivery May of 2023.  We go store to store and every shelf is bare.  Signs are now posted limiting the amount you can buy.  You see someone with a pack of TP and in your head you are computing how much you'd actually pay them for the pack.  You are at the back of the metaphorical TP line and you don't want to be left out.  TP has now become an end of times commodity and the Turd Mentality is in full effect. 

But don't be dismayed, much like the Tulip Bulb collapse of the 1600's, we are already beginning to see the TP market slow down.  While still light in some places, our largest store has had stocked TP shelves for the past 1.5 weeks.  The herd has grown more compassionate, only buying 1-2 packs, instead of a cartful.  Okay, they aren't more compassionate, they are being limited by the stores.  Regardless, the panic and fear is starting to subside.  We won't need to engineer a homemade bidet. We won't need to cut paper towel roles in half.  We won't need to shower after every trip to the bathroom. And as quickly as it came, the great TP crisis of 2020 will go away.  To paraphrase a great Seinfeld episode, "Yes, we will indeed be able to spare a square". 

Attestupa

Attestupa is a prehistoric Nordic phrase supposedly originating from sites where the elderly threw themselves off cliffs (or were thrown off) when they were unable to support themselves or assist in a household.  I doubt we'll find anyone who thinks this is an acceptable practice and we'll consider this one bookend in the spectrum of how a society should treat those who are old, sick, or otherwise at risk.  

Our most recent example of the bookend at the other end of the spectrum is the current CV-19 lockdown, where we are figuratively throwing our young and healthy off an economic, social, and mental cliff in order to protect the elderly and at risk.   I believe much of the nation was and is willing to temporarily give up some freedom in order to prevent the spread of a dangerous pandemic.  I also believe we are willing to do so, even if our own personal risk is low, so those most at risk can remain as healthy as possible.  So for a moment let's abandon the notion the social distancing measures were wrong in the first place and instead focus on what it will take to resume some form of normalcy in our lives.  

We were told these extreme measures were necessary to flatten the curve to slow the spread of the virus.  The most important word in that sentence is "slow".  This was never about waiting until there was no threat at all or the virus was eradicated.  This was always about slowing the spread of the virus to give us time to learn more about how to treat it and to prevent overwhelming our medical response.  

In a perfect scenario a vaccine or highly successful treatment would quickly be found and everyone would have the confidence to resume life as normal.  What we know is a vaccine is at least a year away (and more likely 18 months).  After 4 months we also don't have a treatment protocol agreed upon by health experts to cure those infected.  And we have no timeline for mass testing of potentially infected as well as antibody testing to see those who may be immune.  So in short, we really aren't any closer to a medical solution today than we were 4 months ago.  

Here's some rough stats (probably not perfect but good enough to make my point)

• Globally 1.9 million people out of 5.5 billion are known to be infected.  In those terms, we are all on quarantine over a .000345 infection rate. 
• Globally 119k have died out of those 1.9 million infected.  In those terms, our lives are all on hold over a 6% global mortality rate.  You have a 94% chance of survival if you get it and that's assuming every demographic has the same mortality rate, which we know is not the case.
• In the US 581,000 out of 319 million are known to be infected.  That's a .0018 infection rate.
• In the US 23,604 of those infected have died.  That's a .04 mortality rate.  You have a 96% chance of survival.
• We have 17 states with less than 1000 confirmed cases.  We have another 15 states with less than 3000 confirmed cases.  That's 60% of the states in our country.
• NY and NJ have over half of the reported deaths for the entire country (NY alone is 42%).  And while I don't have the numbers, I'm guessing NYC and Newark account for more than 75% of those numbers.  

We have seen the curve begin to flatten but we are also regularly warned of the dire consequences of returning to life as normal too soon.  So what then is the acceptable criteria for beginning to relax the current measures in place?  There will be no vaccine this year.  We have no end in site for a cure.  There is no timetable for mass testing nor a plan to use that testing to systematically return life to the new normal.  So what then are we waiting for?  Newly infected cases could go to zero but the risk of a return of the virus will still be there.  Our elected leaders are telling us they need science and data to guide their decisions on when we will re-open.  Another way to say that is they currently do not the necessary scientific data to make a decision about the best course forward.  In other words, that same lack of scientific data is being used to keep is on indefinite lockdown.  Net/net, limited data is apparently fine for definitively hurting 99% of the healthy population but not okay for potentially putting at risk the other 1% of the at risk population.

So I ask again, what will it take to reopen?  In the absence of a vaccine, a cure, and testing, what will give our elected leaders the comfort to relax the rules?  And if the answer is nothing, then we either need to gradually return to normal now or all be prepared for continued lockdown for several more months.  What if the real answer on how to save the most lives is for herd immunity to take effect?  What if our lockdown is simply prolonging the issue while creating a number of other unintended consequences like unemployment, increases in spousal abuse, and mental health erosion?  What if 80% of the population already is immune?  What if we never find a vaccine or cure?  

I want to reiterate I'm not attempting to minimize the significance or severity of CV-19.  I'm simply arguing the risks are extremely low for the vast majority of the population, so let us make our own decisions about how much risk we are willing to take.  For those who are old and/or at risk, by all means stay at home.  Social distance to your heart's content.  Allow them to continue to work from home if they choose.  But for everyone else, let them roam free.  Life is risky.  We die every day from disease, accidents, overdoses, old age, heart attacks, etc.  Life is hard and it ends the same for 100% of everyone.  Linda Ellis wrote, "Your life is made of two dates and a dash".  I'm not advocating putting someone else's dash at risk, I'm simply asking to be allowed to live my own dash as I see fit.  

A Journey of 1000 Commutes

I've been commuting now for 20 years.  And when I say commuting, I'm talking 2-3 hours per day almost every day for 20 years.  I recently had my 18 year anniversary at my current employer and decided to quickly calculate how much time I've spent in the car going to and from work over that 18 year period.  Turns out it's about 1.5  years.  Yes, you read that correctly, 1.5 years just driving to work every day.  It's not all bad, the time in the car allows me to unwind, get educated, think, catch up with friends, listen to music, etc.  The commute has also allowed my family to thrive, have a parent home with my once young kids, and generally allowed us to have a great quality of life because we aren't a slave to a mortgage.  But let's not kid ourselves...commuting sucks.  Now over those 20 years of commuting I've learned a few things that I will now share as my 6 truths of commuting.

1) The 2 Worst Commute Days: I have no empirical evidence to prove this, but at this point I'm going to call myself a commute expert and you'll just have to trust me.  Contrary to popular belief, the worst commute days are not those surrounding holidays.  If commuting was torture (which in many ways it is), holiday travel would be dripping water torture.  I'm going to tell you the drives that are the water boarding of commutes.  For the drive in, I've found the first Monday of the Fall Daylight Savings Time adjustment to be simply awful.  My theory is it's the one day of the year people actually got enough sleep.  You generally go to bed an hour earlier than normal and when you wake up at your normal time, you've actually slept an hour later.  In other words, when that alarm goes off in the morning I suspect not nearly as many people are hitting the snooze over and over again.  Therefore, instead of the commute being spread out over several hours, I believe it's condensed into a 1-2 hour window.  For the drive home, you don't get any worse than Halloween Night.  My theory here is this is the one day of the year when virtually everyone is trying to get home at about the same time.  Parents get home to take their kids trick or treating.  Other people are getting home to go to a party.  Still others are getting home just to be in their house to hand out candy.  Regardless of the reason, loads of people are all trying to be home around dark which makes for a brutal commute.  Net/Net, avoid the morning commute on the Monday of Fall Daylight Savings and avoid the evening commute on Halloween.

2) Slow Drivers in the Fast Lane:  This is one of my huge pet peeves.  A few years ago I began to realize a pattern when it came to who was holding up traffic in the fast lane.  More often than not, it's a driver of a pick-up truck.  I'm guessing it's well over 50% of the time.  I don't know why it is or what the rationale may be, but check it out the next time you are driving 60 mph in the left lane and wonder who the lovely person is that's making everyone go so slow.  For you pick-up drivers, yes we all know you have a nice big vehicle that commands a presence and loads of room to drive.  But here's a little secret for you...the right hand lane is just as wide and was specifically designated for people who do not wish to drive the speed limit.  Try it out, we'd all appreciate the gesture.

3) Prius Drivers:  Prius drivers drive incredibly slow.  I'm a hybrid owner so I understand the concept of slower starts and even acceleration in order to keep things in electric mode.  However, I don't see non-Prius Hybrid/Electric owners drive as slow as the Prius Hybrid/Electric owners.  Tesla owners drive fast; I suppose I would too if I had one.  Most other hybrid/electric owners drive basically normal other than a bit slower starts from being at a stop.  But Prius owners just tend to drive slowly and poorly most of the time.  Is there a poor driver test you need to take before acquiring a Prius?  Do you void the warranty if you actually drive the speed limit or take a turn faster than 5 mph?  Does Prius actually stand for "I know you may be in a hurry but I'm not so please continue to waste your time behind me while I go out for my Sunday stroll"?

4) Commuters Will Try Anything to Get Through the Commute:  If idle hands are the devil's workshop, then idle driving is the devil's commute.  I've tried just about everything to pass the time and entertain myself along my drives, including some very stupid and unsafe things.  I've listened to music, listened to books (The Imperfectionists is my favorite), taken work conference calls, had many phone conversations with friends, listened to the entire bible from start to finish (Numbers is brutal), listened to PodCasts (Anything from Gimlet Media is awesome), tried about every genre of station on Sirius XM, spent a couple of weeks pretending to be an in-field traffic reporter (shout out to Leyla Gulen for entertaining this one), done loads of thinking, counted stop-lights, listened to business books, experimented with how long it would take me to drive past cars with license plates from every state (I never finished this one), and once even redlined a supplier contract (this falls into the incredibly unsafe category).  The bottom-line, you do whatever you have to do to get by.  Many thanks to all the people, writers, singers, and companies that have made my commute bearable over the  years.

5) Small Changes Make a Big Difference: This probably falls into the "duh" category but it's still worth mentioning.  Really small changes in the commute can make an enormous difference.  On the negative side, one large pot hole, a tire in the road, a broken down car, or a fender bender can wreck a commute for hours.  There aren't many on the positive side, but Government Holidays pretty dramatically reduce commute time.  If you ever wondered the size of our government, just look at the positive way your commute changes when they have the day off and you don't.  So this is where I implore CalTrans to be smart about their changes, because they do have a profound effect on us drivers.  Metering lights to enter a freeway do not work.  I don't care what your science says, as a driver it has added time to my commute and not made the freeways any less busy.  Get rid of them.  Having toll lanes closed for seemingly no reason is always a bad idea.  And whomever is in charge of the decision not to widen the Richmond Bridge is costing Bay Area commuters hours of their lives on a yearly basis...you've failed us all.  For commuters, for the love of God, please stop rubbernecking.  You really do not need to see what's going on in the other direction just because their are blinking lights.  You do not need to slow down to a crawl because one of the electric freeway signs reads, "Buckle Up, It's the Law".  And you certainly do not need to drive 40 mph below the speed limit just because there's a little drizzle.  Please be safe, but please also be smart.

6) Dear Fellow Drivers, Please Stop:  We share the road together and therefore are reliant on each other for a successful and stress-free commute.  In order to accomplish this very important mission, please do not stay stopped when the light turns green because you are talking on your phone.  Do not drive too slow because you are putting on your makeup or shaving while driving.  Do not have your left turn blinker on when you are in the far left lane.  Do not drive with one foot on the brake and one foot on the accelerator...those following you have no clue whether you are stopping or going.  If you find yourself in the front of the turn lane but really need to go straight, suck it up, make the turn and figure out another way to get back to where you need to go.  If you are looking to turn into oncoming traffic, do not wait until the last second before I arrive to suddenly make the turn...if you weren't bold enough in the 10 seconds before I arrived don't start being bold in the 1 second before I get there.  And finally, do not sit in a parking space for more than 10 seconds while in reverse, stop in the road to talk to friend or neighbor, have a license plate with any format of XX ❤YY, tell me how many people are in your family with stickers of people and pets, or forget to wave thanks when I've let you in front of me when you are desperately trying to get into my lane.