Thursday, June 4, 2020

Strike 3 Baseball

Our American Pastime is on life support and I fear it's time to finally pull the plug.  Baseball is one of the few sports, possibly the only one, that has not been able to adapt to new times and what a new generation of fans want to see.  The games are too long.  The pace is too slow.  The action is too sparse.  And the players are less accessible than other sports.  Moreover, Baseball has always been steeped in tradition, which is part of what made the game great, but it dramatically hampers the ability of MLB to adapt to changing times. 

Pandemic Safety Concerns Cloud Potential Start Of Baseball Season

Stats, the foundation on which baseball was built, are now the boat anchor tied around baseball's need to change.  Baseball cherishes and protects its statistics more than any other sport.  For a long time, this is part of what made baseball great as there were fairly reliable ways to measure modern players to the greats of the past.  A statistical record actually meant something, and was the for the most part, relatively as difficult to achieve in 2000 as it was in 1960.  But the desire to maintain the sanctity of stats and records is having an adverse impact on baseball's ability to change in ways that benefit fans and increase viewership.  Ironically, the changes that have occurred organically in baseball (all bad I would argue) have also had a negative effect on the records the MLB so vehemently tries to protect.  Cy Young won 511 games as a pitcher.  That record will never be broken...ever.  Why? Because in today's game a pitcher is on innings restrictions both in game and for a season.  There are 5 and sometimes 6 days rest in between starts.  Pitchers simply cannot get enough games in to ever challenge that record.  Likewise, Nolan Ryan's career strikeout mark of 5714 will almost certainly never be challenged.  Will we ever have another 30 game winner?  I doubt it given the increasing difficulty for a pitcher to even reach 20 wins.  Will we ever have another .400 hitter with defensive shifts and specialist pitchers?  Seemingly the only record baseball doesn't care to protect are those associated with homeruns...the single offensive achievement that causes the biggest delay in a game.  So I have to wonder, is the MLB really interested in protecting the sanctity of stats and the ability to compare generations of players based on them?  

Baseball has also failed to attract the next generation of fans.  I suspect that's almost entirely due to the pace and length of games.  The average length of an MLB game in 2019 was 3 hours and 5 minutes...a record.  By way of comparison, the length first exceeded 2 hours in 1934.  By 1954 a game now lasted 2 hours and 30 minutes.  2014 marked the first time the average game exceeded 3 hours.  Why so long?  It boils down to 2 main culprits: Pitching and extended time between innings (likely for increased TV commercials).  Pitching has changed more than any other aspect of baseball.  Throughout much of the first half of the 20th century, pitchers regularly completed games.  The second half of the 20th century saw relief pitchers begin to emerge, most notably specialist closers.  I don't know the exact date, but somewhere around the turn of the century we entered the phase of speciality pitchers.  Now instead of seeing 2 or 3 pitching changes in a game, you might see 2 or 3 in an a half of an inning.  Every pitching change causes delays in the action and potentially loses viewers.  Pitch count per game is also up (thus increasing game length) as well as the increased amount of time to simply call a pitch and execute it.  Think about how much of a game is actually being played versus preparing to be played.  It's the only sport in existence where well more than 75% of the game has no one playing it at all.  Why would anyone want to watch that?  Why would anyone want to spend 3 hours of their day to see 4 pitching changes in the 7th inning of game 63/162 of a season?

Additionally, there has been virtually no modernization of baseball to make games more exciting.  While time delays caused by pitching, defensive shifts, time to analyze data for specific in game scenarios, etc. are losing viewers every day there is nothing being implemented to counter-balance and attract fans.  A 162 game season is too long.  I once heard someone say, "Every team wins at least 60 games and loses at least 60 games so the season is really about the other 42."  And it's true.  No one cares about game 92 in the middle of July.  Other sports have adapted.  For example, the NFL brilliantly used fantasy sports and gambling to retain and even attract a brand new set of viewers.  The NBA has been at the forefront of in-arena changes to improve fan experience while also implementing changes such as the slam dunk and the 3-point line.  Why can't baseball figure out some way to make a meaningless regular season game more exciting to watch?  Why does every change for baseball seem to inadvertently make things worse?  How about a higher fence in center field that's worth 2 runs if you hit it over the fence?  Or what about a time clock, like in chess, where that's all the time you have in a game to pitch the ball?  How about model positional changes after soccer and only allow 3 in total per game?  There are lots of ways baseball could change, but they refuse.

Possibly most frustrating is the current global stoppage in sports has provided the perfect excuse for baseball to adapt and try something new.  The MLB has every opportunity right now, with likely huge support from fans, to do whatever is necessary to resume play.  The NHL has come up with a brilliant World Cup style format to finish their season.  The NBA will take on a 22 game play-in style mini March Madness format.  But MLB, the sport that's played outside where most games have built in social distancing due to lack of fans, can't figure out how to get back to the field.  MLB, which already has locations in Florida and AZ (Spring Training sites) that would be perfectly suited for resuming play, has no plan to restart.  Instead, they want to battle between league and players over how many games they will play and how much of their salary they will make.  The NHL will attract new fans because they will be one of the first sports to resume.  If MLB could have figure it out first, they would have at least had a fighting chance to win over some fans who would literally watch anything sports-related right now.  Instead, they are going to be the last and maybe not have a season at all.  Baseball, already on life-support, has given up hope and we might as well pull the plug.  It sad really, but Baseball has no one to blame but themselves.